On October 6, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93, its 28th record close of the year. It’s easy to forget that, in the 21 months before that, investors had to sit through two sharp sell-offs.
Here’s what happened, and what it meant for someone investing a fixed amount every month.
Sell-Off #1: The 2025 Tariff Crash
On April 2, 2025, the US announced sweeping new tariffs on imports from most countries. Markets had already been sliding since February, and the announcement turned the slide into a rout. From its February 19 peak to its April 8 low, the S&P 500 fell almost 19%, just short of a bear market.
Then tariffs were paused and negotiated, and the market recovered faster than almost anyone expected. By late June 2025, the S&P 500 was back at record highs.
Sell-Off #2: The 2026 Oil Shock
In March 2026, military strikes on Iran sent oil prices surging and revived inflation fears. The S&P 500 fell about 5% for the month and the Nasdaq briefly entered correction territory. A second, smaller scare followed in June, when a strong jobs report and the Fed’s outlook raised the odds of a rate hike.
Again, the recovery was quick: the S&P 500 gained more than 10% in April 2026, and set new records in August and October.
We covered the 2026 swings in detail in Oil Shock, Rate Scare, Rebound.
The Numbers
Consider four investors who each planned to put $500 a month into the S&P 500, starting in January 2025, using SPY with dividends reinvested and valued at the end of September 2026:
| Investor | Invested | Value (Sep 30, 2026) | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kept buying every month | $10,500 | $12,388 | +$1,888 (+18.0%) |
| Paused Mar–May 2025 | $9,000 | $10,341 | +$1,341 (+14.9%) |
| Paused during both sell-offs | $7,500 | $8,658 | +$1,158 (+15.4%) |
| Paused Mar–Sep 2025, “waiting for clarity” | $7,000 | $7,847 | +$847 (+12.1%) |
Source: SPY monthly adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance. Each purchase is made at the start of the month. Calculated with the same method as our DCA Calculator.
Three things stand out:
- The steady investor ended with the most money by a wide margin: more than twice the gain of the investor who waited for clarity in 2025.
- The longer the pause, the worse the result. The tariff news stayed uncertain well into the summer of 2025, but prices had already recovered by then. Waiting for good news meant buying back at higher prices.
- Pausing at the right moment barely helped, even with perfect timing. The investor who skipped both sell-offs ended with less money and a lower percentage gain. And in real life, nobody knows in advance exactly which three months to skip.
Why Steady Buying Won
Dollar-cost averaging turns falling prices into an advantage. In the spring of 2025, monthly purchases bought SPY at its lowest prices of the year. In April 2026, the purchase was made at the end-of-March low. Those cheap shares are what pushed the steady investor ahead once the market recovered.
The investors who paused gave up exactly those purchases, the ones that turned out best.
Lessons for the Next Sell-Off
There will be another sell-off. There always is. When it comes:
- Keep your automatic contributions running. The plan only works if it keeps buying when prices are low.
- Ignore calls for “clarity.” By the time the news is clearly good, prices usually have already recovered.
- Keep an emergency fund so you never have to sell low. See Build an Emergency Fund Before You Invest.
- Remember the long-term record. $500 a month in the S&P 500 over the 20 years to October 2026, a period that included the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID crash, grew $120,000 of contributions to roughly $570,000, according to our calculator.
The Bottom Line
Twenty-one months, two sell-offs and dozens of alarming headlines later, the investor who simply kept buying every month came out ahead. That’s not luck; it’s how dollar-cost averaging is designed to work.
Run your own scenario, with any start date, amount and ticker, in the DCA Calculator.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.